Shaun Pollock has been one of my favourite bowlers for many years now. There's no suspicion, as one might have with Glenn McGrath or Shane Warne, that he has sold his soul to the Devil. He's just the product of a remarkable cricketing family, and has rode his talent and capacity for hard work to become one of the best bowlers in Test cricket.

However, he has come off two bad series against Australia. He's not a young cricketer any more. He turns 33 in July, and there aren't many 33-year-old fast bowlers who are as good as they were when they were 25, nor looking forward to collecting another 300 wickets. He's only done well against Australia in a series once, and that's way back in 1996-7. Even then his economy was unusually high for him, at 2.92 although his strike rate hovered around his average at 57. Compare that with his combined average for this past season against the Australians: 2.98 economy and a 117.34 strike rate. Something is clearly wrong. We know Pollock had back trouble that caused him to miss the second test of Australia's visit. What we don't know is whether or not he's had a nagging complaint there for some time.

But when you look at the statistics, something is clearly apparent. Pollock's problem may well be he is now bowling too many overs, and has been doing so for some time.

What I have done is to assemble Pollock's test averages against all teams except Zimbabwe and Bangladesh, and then created a three-year rolling average for him. For example, the first data point for me covers the period from his debut in 1995-6 against England, until the 1998 tour to England. The last covers the period between the 2003 tour of England and the recent two series against Australia.

Furthermore, the point is best illustrated not by columns of figures, but by a graph. It tells you everything you need to know.

The first point I'd like to bring to attention is just how consistent Pollock has been over the years in keeping the opposition from scoring runs. This chart shows his economy:

Fairly consistent, but a steady tipping upwards in recent years. However, take a look at what happens when you look at his strike rate.

Yow! It's getting harder for him to take wickets, the more he is asked to bowl. Something ought to be done, to see if Pollock's career can be revived. And that something is to bowl him less.

18 April 2006