Anno Domini 2004 was the end of an era, as in September Major League Baseball evacuated its first foreign beach head, the City of Saints, Montreal. The franchise had been launched at a time when the United States was waging an unpopular war abroad, when its president was a subject of hatred and loathing on the part of the nation's elite liberals, and an anti-ballistic missile system was in the works. The franchise ended at a time when -- well, you get the picture, or as francophones might say, 'plus ca change...'.
And anyway, this baseball article is not about the United States, for once, but about their neighbours to the north, the Jewel of the Snows, Canada. Canada in 1969 was a very different place to the United States in that year. For one thing it was in a very positive frame of mind, having just celebrated the centenary of its political creation, the British North America Act of 1867. As part of the celebrations, the World's Fair had been held in Montreal. Expo 67 was just another attempt by Mayor Jean Drapeau (1916-1999) to make the biggest city in Quebec a world-class city. (Unfortunately, while giving the baseball team its nickname, it also wound up exacerbating an old Canadian issue.)
In 1962, a Montreal city councillor, Gerry Snyder, had decided it would be a good idea for Montreal to have a Major League team, especially since the leagues were in an expansionary mood, having added four teams in the past two years. Montreal ought to be next. Mayor Drapeau, always the local booster, agreed, and lent his support to the idea. However, it took some time for the right conditions to emerge. They came when Charlie Finley of the Kansas City A's declared he wanted to move the team to Oakland. The American League decided to expand in 1969, awarding franchises to both Kansas City and Seattle. The National League owners decided to join the American League this time (having waited a year before conducting their own expansion last time round), and announced an expansion committee headed by Walter O'Malley (who had been against the idea). The committee would look at proposals from Milwaukee, Dallas, Montreal, Toronto, Buffalo and San Diego. Gerry Snyder made his pitch in December 1967 and in May 1968 found out he had won. O'Malley, whose Brooklyn team had for long kept a AAA affiliate in Montreal, was reputedly instrumental in the decision, together with Roy Hofheinz of Houston and John Galbreath of Pittsburgh. Putting a baseball team outside the United States outraged some members of the US Congress. The rest is history, and isn't really relevant to the 2004 Expos, except to note that there were ownership and stadium problems almost right from the start.
The key facts to note from this highly concise history are that (1) Montreal's local government played a key role in securing the city a team; (2) it required a powerful patron among the owners to get baseball into Canada at the expense of American cities eager for the product; and (3) Montreal businessmen have never been desperately pounding on the doors of Major League Baseball to invest in the product. Thus, when the current troubles of the franchise started in 1998, local government was indifferent, none of the other owners felt strongly about a franchise that under the revenue sharing system was costing them potential earnings while American cities were eager for the product, and no Montreal businessman was prepared to step up and spend a fortune on the team the way Charles Bronfman did in 1968. It took these three illnesses striking all at once to kill the Expos although, of course, owners and their sportswriter shills were eager to blame the fans of the team. There were some other factors involved as well, but enough of this walking in the valley of the shadow of death. The Lord is my shepherd, and baseball is God's Game.
The Expos 2004 season was characterized as a disaster. They finished 67-95, avoiding that 100-loss benchmark. Rather than disaster, I'd prefer to characterize the season as bad. Things were not good from the outset. In the off-season, they had lost two of their stars, outfielder Vladimir Guerrero, to free agency, and power pitcher Javier Vazquez, traded to the Yankees for pitcher Randy Choate, first baseman Nick Johnson, and outfielder Juan Rivera. Without doubt, the Expos started out disastrously. Here's a breakdown of the first half, the numbers are wins, losses and winning percentage:
April 5 19 .208
First quarter games 14 26 .350
May 11 15 .423
June 10 16 .385
Second quarter games 14 27 .341
July pre All-Star break 5 6 .455
That worked out to a 31-56 record, and a winning percentage of .356. That is a 100-loss season on the horizon. But the season's reputation came at two points. April was historically, disastrously bad, worse than the 2001 A's (who still managed to make the playoffs), but better than the 1997 Cubs, to name a couple of recent April losers. And secondly, a disastrous month between 18 May and 18 June when they went 6 and 20, or only marginally better than April. An 0-7 run at the end of that included this game, which came as a terrible blow at a time when everybody was feeling pretty gloomy about baseball in Montreal anyway. For me, anyway, that game came to symbolize the first half of the 2004 season.
So if you opened your paper on 19 June and looked at the standings and saw Montreal at 20-45, you would be forgiven for expecting a 110-loss season, especially if the likes of Brian O'Nora are going to make such egregious errors.
But have a look at that final season total, and do the math. From 19 June to season's end the Expos went 47-50. This ballclub, faced with a lack of interest from fans who had been treated badly by MLB ownership over three seasons, a ridiculous travel schedule taking them to a ballpark in Puerto Rico for 22 games, hostile umpiring, and an uncertain future location for the franchise, pulled themselves together and chased .500 ball the rest of the way. And this in spite of severe blows to their pitching staff, which was missing three-fifths of its rotation for much of the season. These men have character. Here's a breakdown of the second half, as before:
July post All-Star break 10 7 .588
Third quarter games 23 17 .575
August 15 13 .536
Sept-Oct 11 19 .367
Last quarter games 16 25 .390
They finished weakly, but those are winning percentages in there. September was, surprisingly, their second-worst month of the year. However, for what it is worth, from 30 August through to 19 September, the only teams the Expos faced were either Wild Card contenders or division leaders. They went 8-12, or .400 in that stretch. It was the absolute tail end of the season, including the last game in Montreal, that dragged the monthly total down. They went 4-8. Lacking depth on the 40-man roster, the Expos were plumb worn out. Adieu, nos amours.
Starting Rotation
The Expos rotation was expected to be Livan Hernandez, Tony Armas, Tomo Ohka, Zach Day and John Patterson. However, injuries robbed them at different times of four of those players. At the outset, the rotation was Livan, Claudio Vargas, Ohka, Day and Patterson, as Armas was out until June. Hernandez was the only one to see out the year in the rotation. Patterson only lasted out April before he was on the disabled list. Vargas was sent to the bullpen during May. Armas came back at the beginning of June, just in time as Ohka was injured about two weeks later. Day was out for two weeks in early July, came back and was injured again after about a week. Patterson came back just in time, to fill in for him. Sunny Kim, Scott Downs and Rocky Biddle were drafted into the rotation at various times to cover for injuries, among others.
I've analysed the starting pitching using the QMAX method created by Don Malcolm at the Big Bad Baseball annual. The starters kept the team in the game throughout most of the year. Livan was consistent, but everybody pitched well enough at the start of the season to avoid being blamed for the poor start, except for Ohka who had a horrendous April. Actually, Ohka was really only reliable in May, which is somewhat worrying for the future. Overall, Vargas was badly hurt by an inability to keep the ball in the park (1.9 HR/9). But so were Patterson (1.6) and Armas (1.6), while Kim and Downs (both around 1.2) were by no means significantly better. Biddle put up three reasonable performances when moved into the rotation, then flopped. Downs was quite the Dr Jekyll/Mr Hyde, either keeping his team in the game or getting hit hard in equal measure.
In September, the rotation didn't quite break down, but it didn't do well. In fact, while the difficulties of April and May might be laid at the door of the lineup, September's woes look pitching related.
The Bullpen
While I was working on this analysis, Dave Studenmund at Hardball Times released his bullpen book. This includes his calculations of Win Probability Average for all relievers in 2004. The Expos' bullpen finished with a cumulative Win Probablity Average of -1.89. This is not great, but not dire, either. It worked out as 17th best in the Major Leagues, and 10th best in the National League: just on the wrong side of average. The bad news is that this was only .03 ahead of the Marlins, the only divisional opponent below them in the list.
The best of the bullpen was Chad Cordero (WPA 4.31), who eventually became the closer. Cordero led the team in saves with 14. The worst was Rocky Biddle (WPA -1.86), who started the season as closer, and finished second in saves with 11. Cordero faded somewhat in August, but put up a strong September: in 15 outings, he allowed all of one earned run.
They didn't have lefty Joey Eischen for much of the season, thanks to an injury, although when he came back in August. That put the left-handed duties in the hand of Chad Bentz, who has to cope with the problem of a deformed right arm. With Bentz putting up a 1.66 WHIP and a 5.86 ERA, it was a welcome return when Eischen came back. Taking on spear-carrying roles in the bullpen were Luis Ayala (21 holds, 1.18 WHIP, 2.69 ERA), T J Tucker (1.26 WHIP, 3.03 ERA) and Joe Horgan (12 holds, 1.43 WHIP, 3.15 ERA). Horgan was dangerously wild, with 22 walks in 40 IP, while Tucker (67 hits in 65 1/3 IP) and Ayala (92 hits in 90 1/3 IP) gave up more hits than one might care to see.
Claudio Vargas and Sunny Kim played roles as swingmen, Kim entering the rotation when Vargas was deemed to have faltered. Then he faltered, and returned from whence he came, and Rocky Biddle had his turn.
Unlike the rotation, the bullpen didn't suffer badly from injuries. However, it wasn't good enough to make up for problems elsewhere. It had a couple of brightish lights in Ayala and Cordero, who got useful support from Horgan, Tucker and Kim. Serviceable if unspectacular, one might say.
The Lineup
Where to begin? Easy enough - in 2003, the Expos had Vladimir Guerrero in right field, and batting fourth. They finished in fourth place in the National League East, but with a winning 83-79 record. In 2004, without Vladimir Guerrero in right field, they finished in fifth place, with a 67-95 record. That's a loss of 16 wins, and a substantial chunk of that is down to the inability of the Expos to re-sign Vlad. General manager Omar Minaya wanted to re-sign Vlad, Vlad was reputed to like Montreal, and the dollar sum of Minaya's offer was rumoured to be equal to the $70 million over five years Vlad actually got from Anaheim. But the contract structure was such that Vlad did not get that money spread evenly across the five years, but heavily backloaded. Considering he might not get a penny in 2006, when the Collective Bargaining Agreement comes up for renewal, it's hardly surprising that the Expos' offer was rejected.
Minaya's plan B was to sign Carl Everett, trade for Nick Johnson and fill the Expos' perennial hole at third by signing Tony Batista. The hope was that the synergy produced by these three would add up to Vlad plus two average players. Unfortunately, it didn't work out that way. Nick was on the Disabled List until 28 May, he didn't bat particularly well in May and June, had an appalling August, and got hit by a batted ball so he missed September. Batista made some contributions in August and September, at least in hitting home runs, but his April and June were awful, and his May not very good. Everett stunk up the joint until June, when he blossomed like a supernova (.975 OPS in the month) only to fade into some kind of dwarf star until he was traded to the White Sox. Like Johnson, he spent a lot of time on the disabled list. The trio added up to something closer to Wilton than Vlad.
So, let me illustrate the disaster zone that was the Expos' lineup in 2004. Here's the OPS by place in the batting order:
Batting first .806
Batting second .732
Batting third .821
Batting fourth .748 (including a blech-inducing .299 OBP)
Batting fifth .665 (blech again)
Batting sixth .728
Batting seventh .625
Batting eighth .694
Batting ninth .466
One isn't going to get very far with hitting like that.
The best of the bunch was Brad Wilkerson. I use a linear weights system similar to Pete Palmer's Batting Runs, and Wilkerson scores 25.82 park-adjusted batting runs. This is pretty good for a left fielder, not so good for a first baseman. In fact, if one positionally adjusts Wilkerson's score as if he were a first baseman, his score drops below that of the number two in the rankings, second baseman Jose Vidro (9.59), who also had some injury troubles during the season. Juan Rivera, acquired from the Yankees, rounds out the top three with a 9.21 score. Major disappointments, even allowing for positional adjustments, came from Orlando Cabrera (-15.61) and Tony Batista (-11.13). Frank Robinson, for some reason, thought to play Ron Calloway a lot at the start of the season, giving him 84 at bats for him to amass a depressing -9.56 score while Rivera rode the bench. Here's some other adjusted figures for regulars:
catcher Brian Schneider -8.34
shortstop Alex S. Gonzalez -5.64
centerfielder Endy Chavez -7.79
outfielders Terrmel Sledge 3.78 and
Carl Everett -3.23
Another way to look at all this is to compare the regulars against their established career levels, and see who underperformed and who overperformed. Most players will tend back in the direction of their career level, so one can see if the Expos were hurt by an unusual combination of underperformance.
Above career level........At career level........Below career level
Brad Wilkerson........Jose Vidro........Nick Johnson
Endy Chavez........Brian Schneider........Orlando Cabrera
Juan Rivera.................................Alex S. Gonzalez
.........................................Tony Batista
Marginally, one would have to say the team's regulars underperformed expectations. Not enough, however, to say it was a significant factor in their sub-par season. Basically, about half of the Expos' players weren't all that good. Endy Chavez playing above his career level is still not an all-star. Tony Batista playing below his expectations is a recipe for trouble.
In terms of prospects, the 2004 Expos gave playing time to some potentially useful players of the future. Maicer Izturis got 107 ABs to score -5.55, which isn't so bad for a shortstop. Brendan Harris had 50 ABs to score -5.58, which wasn't all that impressive for a thirdbaseman. Outfielder Ryan Church got 63 ABS and scored -6.30, which is bad for a corner outfielder. However, none of these players was older than 25, so there's room for growth. It's worth noting that all of them were acquired through trades.
Finally, a word of praise for one of the better utility infielders in the majors, Jamey Carroll. He's been a feature of the Expos bench for some years now, and done reasonably well. In 218 at bats, he scored 2.63 park adjusted batting runs.
Thus, as this sorry tale illustrates, if one wanted to point the finger of failure at any part of the 2004 Expos, it would gesture in the direction of the team's bats.
Fielding
Fielding is not easy to measure using sabermetric methods. Indeed, traditional baseball fielding stats are probably worse. However, I've adopted a very basic linear weighting system that incorporates Zone Rating and fielding chances to give some kind of idea of how good a fielder is. (Zone Rating is a system of measuring how many balls a player fields in his area of responsibility on the diamond.)
Rather than supply some numbers that won't make much sense without a lot more, I'll give some thumbnail analysis of where the Expos regulars ranked as fielders:
Catcher: Schneider was one of the better fielding catchers in the National League, arguably the best. (Jason Kendall of Pittsburgh has a good case, too.)
First Base: Wilkerson and Johnson added up to quite a good regular. Pujols was the best in the National League by a long way.
Second Base: Vidro was almost the worst in the league among regulars. Ray Durham beat him to the bottom.
Shortstop: Cabrera was about average among regulars (solid rather than spectacular), but Gonzalez was not good. The Stade Olympique's unforgiving turf got the better of him.
Third Base: Tony Batista was bad with the glove, one of the worst in the league.
Left Field: Sledge and Wilkerson weren't bad. Above average, but not among the best, for those getting a lot of starts in left.
Centre Field: Endy Chavez was around average, but just on the wrong side.
Right Field: Sledge and Rivera were among the better right fielders, but not the best.
So the overall picture is Jekyll-and-Hyde performance in the infield, but able to hold their own in the outfield. Fielding wasn't quite a strength of the team, but it was definitely not a weakness. The main problem is that the Expos were only top quality in one of the key defensive positions, at catcher.
Outlook for 2005
Well, I wave goodbye to the Expos. I came to love them, even though I am not a Quebecois by birth, but now I hand them over to fans of the Washington Nationals, with best wishes that they'll give them as much pleasure as I have had from the franchise. However, a few words on their prospects for the coming year before I 'close the book, ring the bell, quench the candle'.
New general manager Jim Bowden's main job was to get someone to fill Vlad Guerrero's shoes. He opted to trade Juan Rivera, a player I thought showed promise, for Jose Guillen, who is on the wrong side of 27. Guillen, in fact, had more punch with the bat than Rivera in 2005, but on a career comparison basis I'd call it almost even, except that Rivera is younger and better than Guillen was at the same age. Guillen has had two better seasons with the bat in recent years, though, and if he makes it three, then Bowden might achieve his objective for 2005.
Signing Vinny Castilla doesn't look a very bright move. Castilla statistics have been inflated by the hitter's parks he has made home for most of his career. It's questionable if there was anything better available, but Bowden didn't give the impression that he looked around at all the alternatives before pushing a contract in Vinny's direction. I fear this move was made to make a splash at a time when RFK's financing was still being debated.
Cristian Guzman is a gamble. He's on the right side of 27, and might prove Cabrera's equal with the bat over the next season or two, but I don't think his ceiling was as high as OC's was. He's also a worse fielder. Again, I'd say he rushed into this one, although I don't think he could have done better - something I'm far less confident about saying with regard to Castilla.
More intriguing than Guzman is Alex Escobar. He could be a useful substitute for Endy Chavez, if the latter plays himself out of a job. Escobar had a terrible 2004, but players have a way of alternating good and bad seasons, and his 2003 would be respectable if spread out over a whole year in centre.
Why did Bowden sign Esteban Loaiza? The Nationals had plenty of pitching depth in the rotation, and a reasonable bullpen. It made no sense until I started analysing the pitching. I hate to say it, but Tomo Ohka may be at the end of his useful major-league life, and Loaiza might fill that hole in the rotation.
On the whole, this team will be better than it was in 2004. It would be hard for it not to be, because it wasn't really as bad as it seemed then. But I don't see it a strong candidate for contending, and I suspect it will finish no higher than fourth in the National League East.
FIAT. AMEN.
