8 June 2005
Soccer Payrolls
The Times of London published a table showing total payroll by team in England's Premier League soccer during the 2003/4 season. Those used to seeing payrolls for the favourite baseball teams in excess of US$60 million may be interested in making comparisons. The highest payroll, over $205 million, belongs to Chelsea. Most of the big clubs exceed the $60 million benchmark, including Everton, Aston Villa, and Tottenham. Charlton, often regarded as a model club for its fan-friendly atmosphere, nudges $55 million. It's definitely the case in the Premiership that dollars equals victories. The biggest underachiever was Leeds United, where $65 million could only buy them a relegation spot in 19th place, while the overachieve award goes to Bolton, who paid out a humber $42.3 million but finished 8th.
7 June 2005
Chao, Claudio
Claudio Vargas had been designated for assignment a week ago by Jim Bowden. I was surprised he had made the roster out of spring training, but at the time he was on the disabled list. Vargas came to the Expos in one of the more questionable trades of the MLB ownership era, when then general manager Omar Minaya sent Carl Pavano and Justin Wayne to the Marlins. The deal was made on July 11, 2002, and sent former Expo Floyd to Montréal for Pavano, with several minor leaguers and money involved. One can make a rough assessment of the trade by comparing player ratings after the deal. Floyd was gone a few weeks later, traded to Boston for pitchers Sunny Kim and Seung Song. There are all sorts of ways to assess a trade, but a simple comparison of a player formula using a linear weights method similar to that used by Pete Palmer in the Total Baseball series of encyclopedias, and now in the ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia gives a numerical measurement of value. Adding up the net effect on both teams does not make pretty reading for anyone who defends Minaya:
Montréal
Cliff Floyd (2002) -5.30
Wilton Guerrero (2002) -12.50
Claudio Vargas (2003-4) -33.61
Sunny Kim (2003-4) -23.51
Total -74.92
Florida
Carl Pavano (2002-4) 12.33
Mike Mordecai (2002-4) -24.87
Justin Wayne (2002-4) -14.13
Graeme Lloyd (2002) 2.65
Total -24.02
The numbers are an estimated value in terms of runs above or below the contribution of an exactly average player as a batter, fielder and pitcher. When one calculates that about ten runs are needed to win a game, one can see that the trade cost the Expos something like seven wins over three seasons. But even in terms of the 2002 season alone, the Expos were losers. The players the Marlins got added some 2.84 runs; those the Expos got cost -17.80 -- a win and a half. I only hope the money they got in the trade was a substantial amount.
31 May 2005
Off topic: Salvezza
In my spare time, I am (and have been for many years, dating back to the early 1990s) a devoted follower of Fiorentina soccer club, which plays in the Italian league. Last time they were in Serie A, they were relegated. Then they couldn’t pay the Serie B fee and were relegated again and went bust. A new club was formed that got back into Serie A for the 2004/5 season, but promptly looked like they would be right back down in Serie B as they started the last day of the season in one of the three relegation spots, with 40 points. However, Fiorentina beat Brescia 3-0 at home (in part thanks to a penalty decision that looked questionable to me), Bologna and Parma (two teams above them on 42 points each), both drew. Thanks to a superior record against the other two (two wins at home, two draws away), Fiorentina escaped a playoff to retain its Serie A status, while fans of Bologna and Parma have to suffer one more game. Perhaps my luck with teams is turning.
Brandon Phillips Watch
I’ve crossed swords a couple of times at Baseball Think Factory over whether the acquisition of pitcher Bartolo Colon by Omar Minaya for the Expos in 2002 was a good move by Minaya. While the Expos' partner, the Cleveland Indians have done moderately well with pitcher Cliff Lee and outfielder Grady Sizemore, the third player in the trade was Brandon Phillips. Phillips was Montréal's second-round draft pick in 1999, and was highly regarded for a couple of years afterwards. Yet his 2003 call up to the Indians didn’t go to well, and last season he didn’t exactly tear up the International League, even allowing for his being a second baseman. So for this year I have instituted a Brandon Phillips watch using a spreadsheet and some formulae for finding Major League Equivalents to minor-league statistics. Unfortunately, I didn’t note down my first reading properly, but here is how he is going:
5 May .244 OBP
19 May .562 OPS
31 May .532 OPS (.225 OBP)
His walks haven’t changed for two weeks. This guy is reportedly got the manner of a big-league baseball player, but he’s not getting it done in AAA so far. He might get somewhere if he learned to take a pitch.
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